Forex Trade Idea - NZDUSD

Here's a good chart setup for the NZDUSD:

The 200 SMA has always been a good support/resistance point to trade off of for as long as I can remember. Here on the 1 hour the 200 SMA stopped the bull run the pair was making. Now I have two orders in for a long and short trade. If a full candle forms above the 200 SMA i'll go long with a 10 pips stop below the 200 SMA and a target of 10 pips below R2(0.6885).
I mostly think it will go short so I have an entry order to short at 0.6859 with as stop of 10 pips above the 200 SMA and an initial profit target of 10 pips. I'll probably open up 2 lots with the second lot going for the 50 SMA as a target(approximately 40 pips). -TraderVlad