Saturday, April 28, 2007

My Top Ten Beliefs about the Forex Market... and many more!

  1. The Forex markets are not random. They move for many reasons like: trade flows, reaction to new news, big money adjusting large positions, central bank diversification, etc. When the markets are not moving (extremely low volatility), that means traders are waiting for the next big event (i.e. News report, Central Bank talk, etc.)
  2. My "edge" comes from the ability to determine market sentiment on fundamental data and determining entry and exit points using technical analysis. My position sizing skills are pretty good, but needs improvement.
  3. I believe buy and hold does work, in the really long term (years) and if you can handle the swings. But I think active trading is more profitable, and less risky if you can do it right.
  4. Swing trading suits me, but it all really depends on the market conditions. Range trading can provide many trading opportunities.
  5. For Forex, I think finding support and resistance works well as a basis for a trade idea. Price action seems to respond well to moving averages, Fibonacci ratios, and Pivot Points.
  6. Price action is dependent upon how the market interperates data and how it will eventually affect interest rates and interest rate differentials.
  7. I do not need to be right, even half the time, to be profitable.
  8. I do not need others to give me ideas, nor do I have the need to give others ideas.
  9. I can tolerate losses pretty well. I think I can handle a 20% draw down in my account before I feel the need to stop and re-evaluate my system.
  10. My top 5 keys to trading are:
  • Having the correct mental state and being able to focus
  • Using a well thought out system based on your beliefs and what you know.
  • Taking the extra time to prepare for every trade.
  • Using correct position sizing.
  • Trade with confidence.

This may change in the future as I gain more experience, but that's my top 10 for now. This list will be ongoing and one I will visit often as I learn more.

More beliefs next time on...

...support and resistance....



1 Comments:

Blogger alice said...

hey I liked these points
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1:11 AM  

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