Forex Review

I've been watching the forex markets and reading market reports all morning and here's my new idea...stop trading!! Because of the holiday season t's going to be choppy for the rest of the week and with low volume there's higher chances of higher volatility. Ofcourse, I'm going to continue to watch and if a really, really, really good trade idea comes up I'm definitely going to take it. For today, I'm just going to relax and maybe play some video games(while I have charts up ofcourse). Tomorrow there's a few US economic reports...well see if any good opportunities arise. To those reading have a good one!

Forex Trade Review - 12/27/05

Well, it looks like my forex trade stopped out today...can't win them all as they say. Here's the chart:


The reason I took the trade was because it was in a downtrend, it appeared to bounce downwards away from the 100 sma, and the economics of the forex trade sounded pretty good. Now, I saw the long wicks in the candles before the trade, but I was convinced that it would still go downwards. I guess it's a good sign in the shorterm of the turn around. Hopefully another lesson learned and I won't make the same error in the future. As far as a new trade idea, nothing good at the moment. I will update in the morning. Good night!

Forex Trade Idea - 12/27/05

Well, I had a great break and did some non-stop eating, but it's time to get back to making some pips! Well, I've been reading reports and checking out forex charts all morning, and here's a forex trade I just entered:

Short EURJPY @ 138.66/ stop @ 138.96/ target 138.18. This trade may take a while, so i'm going to let it run. Good risk to reward and the EURJPY is in a downtrend. Also, because the Japanese economy is poised for growth and the EU is still unstable, I may even let the trade run if it continues in a downtrend and add positions on later. Let's see what happens....

And I'm also thinking about entering short on GBPJPY, but I'm not sure if I can handle the spread on that bad boy:


Well, I would love some feedback on my charting if anyone has any. Good luck to all!

Forex Trade Review - 12/22/05

Sorry, but it's been a hectic week and a half so I've gotten kinda lazy with my trade idea posts. I did trade and here's the record:


It was a pretty good week with a 4:1 win ratio, but my avg. win vs. my avg. loss is very lopsided. It's something I really need to work on and I believe the cause of it is patience. I trade with hourly charts, so I'm going to have to adjust my time frame to about a day or so in being in a position to let the position "mature" for lack of a better term. Hopefully, after the holidays I'll be able to get back to writing regular trade ideas and reviews.

I'm probably not going to trade for the rest of the week, so to everyone I hope you have a blessed holidays!

Forex Trade Review - 12/21/05

I did a couple of shotgun trades last night... haha not really shotgun because they were based on my fib retracement methods.

Here's the record:

Here's the charts:Usually, I would go for the previous high or low as my first profit target, but I used a little discrection with news coming out in AUDUSD and I'm trying out a time filter on USDCAD. So I exited with a total of 26 pips gain.

Well, off to look for the next trade....

Forex Trade Idea Update - 12/20/05

On the USDCAD trade idea, it never reached my entry point of 1.1657. It came as low 1.1659 then shot straight up...currently at 1.1714 at the time of this writing.

My forex trade idea on Cable turned out to be a 30 pips loss. When I put this trade on I kinda broke my rules. The cross was at 1.7610, so I should've entered at 1.7640. If I entered there I would've hit my 30 pip target at 1.7670. I entered at 1.7650 because that was the pivot point and GBPUSD might have hit resistance at that point. Hopefully, another lesson learned. Stick to the rules.

Also, US PPI came out with a surprise number of -0.7% vs. consenses of -0.5%. A really good number for the US which could lower concerns of inflation. The dollar is making a strong right now. I'm going to look for retracements and possibly enter long the dollar.

I'll update this blog this afternoon with charts.

Well, off to look for another trade idea....

Forex Trade Idea - 12/20/05

I'm looking at a trade on USDCAD:

I have first or second entry on the chart because I have decided at the moment which one i'm going to enter first. Most likely the 38% fib line. So i have put an order in to buy at 1.1657. Stop at 1.1623. Target at 1.1700. USDCAD is in a minor uptrend and I don't want to trade against it.

I also have an order in for Cable to buy at 1.7650. Right above pivot point. I know I have drawn a downward channel, but this trade is based on the wma cross. Stop at 1.7620. Target between 1.7680 - 1.7700

Forex - 12/19/05

So, last night I was looking at cable (GBPUSD)using my wma cross and thinking I should short at 1.7685. Here's the chart I was looking at:

I've only been trading this system for a few months, but I know it works because in the morning hours (4:00 am EST - 6:00 am EST) Cable makes a move.

Here's what happened:

It would've been good for 30 pips if i entered at 1.7685 and it hit my first target at 1.7655. From now on that's what i'll do...check the cross at about 2 am EST and if it looks good...go for it!

Right now I'm looking for a new trade idea, so stay tuned!!! - TraderVlad

Forex Trade Idea Update - 12/15/05

Well, it looks like traders are still moving into the yen, but there wasn't a retracement that brought down yen enough to trigger my trade ideas.

CPI for EU is coming out at 5:00 am EST. My next trade idea will probably be for the EURUSD. Generally I like to stay out of trades during news reports, but I'm starting to develop trading around the news as a part of my trading arsenal. I'm expecting to be lower than previous which means a lower possibility of rate hikes by the ECB. Based on this reasoning, I'll probably look to short EURUSD below the previous low of 1.1906. If I come up with stop and targets I'll update this blog. Have a good night!

Forex Trade Idea - 12/15/05

Looks like all yen crosses made big moves yesterday and last night. Even though it's some of the largest moves in a one or two day period time I think anybody has ever seen(700 pips in GBPJPY/300 pips EURJPY)I'm going to still going to go long yen because I think traders are going to continue to move from the dollar to the yen. Here's my trade idea

EURJPY: short at 139.78. Stop at 140.34. Profit target at 139.05
GBPJPY: short at 206.51. Stop at 207.35. Profit target at 205.30

Forex Trade - 12/14/05

I woke up a little bit later than usual and as soon as I saw the charts I saw another trade setup on USDCAD. I knew the Trade deficit report came out, so I waited about half an hour after the report to enter the trade. The Trade Deficit hit an all time high. Now I knew I should have went long because the number was so high, but i entered short mostly because of the longer term downtrend. So I entered short at 1.1478 with a profit target of 1.1442 and a stop at 1.1510. Unfortunately, the trade deficit number pushed my position to hit the stop. So, I had a losing day, but I'm gonna analyze this trade more this afternoon and try to make sure I don't have a losing trade again in future similar situations. I hope this helps...

Forex Trade Idea Update - 12/13/05

Well, it looks like I'm positive pips today. I entered short on USDCAD @ 1.1531 at 7:20 am EST and at 10:23 am my profit target of 20 pips was hit. I hope others have benefited from the Forex trade idea this morning.

So as expected, the Fed raised the raised interest rates another quarter of a point. Here's the Yahoo Finance article on it if you want the details. But the most important part that moved the markets was how the Fed left out a key phrase they usually include when they raise rates - "that even with the increases rates were still quite low." This is a signal to economists that the Fed is close to halting the rate hikes, possibly after the March or May Fed meeting. We'll just have to wait and see what the economy does and if inflation creeps up.

I have 3 more days until December options expiration. Wall Street used the Fed's remarks today to rally. Right now I'm 3 points OTM on my XEO position. Hopefully, it'll stay that way for the rest of the week!

Forex Trade 12/13/05

Well, it looks like the same Forex trade idea from yesterday looks good to me. So I will enter USDCAD @ 1.1531 short with a stop at 1.1550 and a profit target of 1.1511. I readjusted my profit/loss targets because of the news reports coming out just in case of quick whipsaws. A safer trade would be to wait until USDCAD touches the 50 SMA on the one hour chart, but I'll just go in at 1.1531. Let's see what happens...

Forex Trade Idea Review - 12/12/05

Well, it looks like I never entered the trade. After I put up the trade idea USDCAD came withing 2 pips of my entry point. Man, if it did enter it would have been good for the 30 pips profit target. Actually, as of this moment USDCAD has stalled at the 1.1500 price level. 30 pips would have been nice, but it's time to move onto the next trade opportunity.

Well, my charting software is still no good, so I'm using my broker's charting software which will have to do for now. The only thing I can't do very easily is drawing channels, which is a pretty big part of my analysis. Hopefully, it'll be back up soon. Anybody know of any good charting software besides Xtick?? Let me know!

Forex Analysis - 12/12/05

Hello, let's see what's going on in the Forex market today... Well, the dollar is taking a beating against the euro and the pound due to buying in the middle east and asia, and traders here in the US readjusting their positions before the Fed meeting tomorrow. This week is action packed full of economic reports. Hopefully, I can catch some moves and make some pips. I'm thinking of one of two ways to play the strong move. 1. Wait for retracement and go long euro or pound... 2. Wait to see if there is going to be consolidation and possibly go short. So, basically we gotta wait and see. If i see a trade forming I will post again with an update.

My charting software is down so I can't really comment on the other pairs. I'm kinda upset because I had a great chart setup I was going to post yesterday on USDCAD... but xtick has been down all weekend!! ARRRRGGGHHH! Okay I'm over it..time to move on hehe. Hopefully it will be back up soon. Well, I am still thinking of getting into USDCAD. There isn't much in the way of economic news in Canada so I think it'll continue to react to technicals, most notably the 50 sma. It's been bouncing off the 50 sma to the downside, plus the pair is in a downtrend...so here's a trade idea:

short USDCAD @ 1.1531...stop at 1.1560...profit at 1.1502

Roughly a 1:1 reward to risk ratio.
Let's see what happens!

OPTION UPDATE: Sold Iron condor on RUT 100 Jan at
730/740/650/640 @ 2.00 per contract.

Forex Trade Update/ New trade idea

Hello! Well, it looks like the short on GBPUSD @ 1.7498 got stopped out at a 30 pip loss. The reason I entered that trade was because I use the 5/20 MA cross which works really well in short term market reversals and trending markets. It looks like though cable decided to go range bound last night and stopped me out. It's okay, just analyize, learn, and move on...more opportunities later to make pips right??? :)

And the TradeIdea of the day is: No trade! With no major economic news for the rest of the day I'm going to sit out. U. of Michigan consumer confidence has just come out and it looks like it's pushed the dollar a little bit. With most of the world getting ready for the weekend there's not much goin on in the other currencies.

I will post a week in review, plus my outlook this week. I will also post an update later on my options trading. I am possible going to enter new postions in my options account. If you do trade Forex today, please be cautious!

Forex Trade Signal

Short GBPUSD @ 1.7498...stop 1.7528, take profit @ 1.7468 ... 5wma/20wma cross

Forex Trade Review:

I did quite a few trades in the past few days trying to catch the short term moves in this choppy market. It's been great for testing out a few ideas as far as my methods on support and resistance, fundamental discretion, and time filters and discretion. Here's my record from 12/06/05:

Currency Date/Time Entered Sold/Bought Bought/Sold Gross P/L Net P/L
USD/JPY 12/05/05 08:36 AM B 121.14 S 120.94 16.51 15.38
NZD/USD 12/06/05 07:07 PM B 0.7136 S 0.7160 -24.00 -24.00
USD/CAD 12/06/05 08:03 PM S 1.1576 B 1.1619 -29.29 -29.29
GBP/USD 12/06/05 08:05 PM S 1.7383 B 1.7353 30.00 30.00
EUR/JPY 12/07/05 09:27 AM B 141.71 S 141.86 12.39 12.39
NZD/USD 12/07/05 07:45 PM S 0.7031 B 0.7011 20.00 20.00
USD/CAD 12/07/05 10:07 PM S 1.1590 B 1.1614 -20.66 -20.66
EUR/JPY 12/08/05 07:58 AM S 141.82 B 142.05 -19.07 -19.07
NZD/USD 12/08/05 08:51 AM S 0.7004 B 0.7018 -14.00 -14.00
USD/JPY 12/08/05 11:59 AM B 120.32 S 120.32 0.00 0.00
Total: -28.12 -29.25

Now the first thing that comes to mind when i look at this is, "man, i'm trading way too much!" The next thing is obviously my losses on average are larger than my wins...roughly 21 average loss and a 19 pip average gain. And I have a 4:5 win/loss ratio. One of the important lessons I hope will stick in my head is from the 24 pip loss on NZD/USD, which is to always check the news before you get into a trade. Well, the news on this pair at the time was unexpected, but I have it in my head now to always see what's happening before getting in. I hope this review helps someone. If anyone has any questions or comments feel free to leave a comment or send me an email at tradervlad@gmail.com

Options Update 12/08/05

Yesterday, I closed out the call side of my RUT iron condor spreads. My short calls started at a strike of 700 and the current price is about 686. I learned a long time ago to take some profit off the table to take away event risk. The general rule is take half of your positions off when you've reached 80% profit point. I closed out all of the call side of my options with a profit of $100 per contract because it's so close to the 700 strike. Now I'm just waiting to see what happens in the next week with the S&P 100. I have Iron condors with the XEO as well with my short call spreads at 580/585. Right now the market is trading sideways...hovering around it's highs for the year. The current price of XEO is 574.49. I think it'll stay below the 580 strike because i think the market is overbought and it looks like it's having trouble breaking into new highs. We'll have to wait and see next week...

Since my last forex post, i've made about 10 trades...i'll update and talk about those trades in my next post.

USDJPY trade was good!

It looks like the trade mad a good 30 pips. Couple of thoughts on it though. My confidence was shaky on that trade, and the reason for that is because when i entered the usdjpy hadn't touched the 50 sma yet. If I had waited, that would have reduced my potential loss and increased my profit target. Ofcourse, the trade off is potentially missing the move. All in all, it worked out well. If you watch the USDCAD or AUDUSD, their central banks are making rate decisions today. Canada will announce at approximately 9:00 am EST, and the consenses is that they will raise rates to 3.25% from 3.00%. The Aussies will announce their desicion about about 5:30 pm EST, and consenses will be no change. It would be a great lesson to watch and see how those decisions affect their currency, especially if there is a surprise. I'm looking at a short position on USDCAD at the moment. I am going short at 1.1530 with a 1.1565 as my stop and 1.1510 as my profit target. It's a 20/35 risk to reward ratio, but it looks like a high probability profit trade.

Forex - 12/05/05

My previous trade on GBPUSD entered at 1.7295. It stopped out at 1.7325. It have a max of about 20 pips, but I was going for 30 pips. Why did it not work? I would guess that I should have not entered that cross because there was news from the UK coming out at 4:30 am EST. The next cross was a winner. I should have waited for that one because it did happen right around the same time as the news report, and the news report pushed it into profit territory. Right now 8:32 am EST I'm looking at a long trade on USDJPY. Enter at 120.92. Profit target of previous high at 121.40 and stop loss at 120.56(trend line). About a 1:1 risk to reward ratio. Let's hope it works

where have i been??

Okay i know i said i'd be posting a whole lot more, but i've been going thru a few changes as far as what i trade and my strategies. This past month I've been focusing on forex a whole lot more, doing a morning analysis on the EURUSD and developing systems for multiple pairs. I usually post a morning analysis on another website, so i think i'm going to start posting here my moring forex analysis. As of this moment I'm looking at a potential trade. Short GBPUSD @ 1.7295 with a stop loss at 1.7325 and a target of 1.7265. I'll do an update on this trade in the morning.

"Life is a mirror. If you frown at it, it frowns back: if you smile, it returns the greeting." - William Makepeace Thackeray